Unsprung Media

The Celestial Jukebox
Perhaps you’ve heard about the “Celestial Jukebox”?  It’s the notion that anyone, anywhere will be able to listen to a continual and personalized stream of digital music through devices and computers connected to the Internet.  By the end of 2008, the Celestial Jukebox will have just about arrived.

The Celestial Jukebox is great news for artists.  The technology that powers the Celestial Jukebox will recommend you and your songs to those seeking your style of music.  The same technology will ultimately generate royalties and opportunities from sources you could only dream about three years ago.

To succeed in the Celestial Jukebox, make it though the Celestial Funnel.
Before you make any money from the Celestial Jukebox, your songs will have to make it through the Celestial Funnel. The Celestial Funnel is the widespread availability of, and the pervasive and coordinated reliance upon Same Sonic Science, Social Validation, Big Brother Systems, and upon Trusted Curators (all explained below).
 

The Celestial Funnel is the Music 2.0 phenomenon artists have been waiting for, and it’s the absence of it, that made Music 2.0 the bitch you didn’t expect.  Digital music was supposed to change everything.  Instead, it ushered in an unprecedented tidal wave of crap competition and clutter that’s unlike anything anyone had ever seen before.  The Celestial Funnel is game changing; it cuts out the chafe, eliminates the clutter, and it enables great artists and songs to be found…rather effortlessly.

Who will use the Celestial Funnel?
Eventually everyone.  However, since most people still find out about music the old fashioned ways, all of the gatekeepers that make and break artists, such as record labels, programming directors, music supervisors, booking agents and anyone with gravity in the music industry, will use the Celestial Funnel to find the best songs and artists.  

The Celestial Funnel will end music promotion, as you know it today.
By 2012, pre-popularity promotion will cease to be effective.  Prior to participating in any music related opportunity that’s bigger than a backyard barbeque, you and/or your songs will have to make it through the Celestial Funnel.  Artists should take note: no amount of indie promotion will take you or your songs through the funnel faster.  As the Celestial Funnel envelops the marketplace, you will no longer be able to put lipstick on the proverbial pig.

Why will the Celestial Funnel work?
My job is to understand the depth and capabilities of the new technologies and services that are being built for the music industry.  I can tell you that the technology that I am about to describe works well, and that it’s only getting better.  Second, and more importantly, the technology doesn’t have to work perfectly; it only has to cut the size of the haystack by 80% to enable those that need to find the needles…a simpler and less-labor intensive way to find them.  The people that are charged with sifting through mounds of songs and piles of artist profiles will readily embrace this timesaving technology.  

Stages of the funnel.  Stage One - Same Sonic Science
Same Sonic Science, also known as Music Information Retrieval, includes software and services that can:

• Recommend songs that truly sound like another song (the seed song).
• Funnel out songs that do not have the attributes that a listener is seeking.
• Measure a songs proximity to a cluster(s) of songs.
• Measure potential popularity (by counting charting-songs or by any subjective criteria) of songs in a cluster.
• And, many other related propositions via database design and user interfaces.

I call all this technology Same Sonic Science because when we describe or search for songs, we begin by describing some sameness to, and a relevancy/proximity around, a preexisting song or sound.  Same Sonic Science mimics the way music has always been described and discovered.  Go way back to the first song.  Eve said: “Give me a song that sounds like little morning birds, but not like the sound that comes out of Adam’s ass when he eats goat.”  Seeking some sameness in music is something we all do naturally.

There’s no danger that Same Sonic Science will cause every song to sound the same.  Any song is a jumping off point for seeking sameness.  This technology works, it will cut out huge buckets of bad, and it’s being glued into every single digital music proposition on earth.

Stages of the funnel.  Stage Two - Social Validation
Moving down the funnel, the next stage is Social Validation; it’s the first stage of the funnel that enables humans to correct the inaccuracies of, or the inconsistencies within, the Same Sonic Science.  Social Validation is what happens after someone pushes the Same Sonic Button on a digital music site, or within a digital music system.  It’s the next thing(s) people do after listening.  In no specific order, they bookmark, they add to a playlist, they share, they recommend, they tag, they buy, they vote, they download, they steal, they play again, they leave a comment, or they basically do anything that causes an information system to record a positive or negative event.  The data that’s generated from social validation will be observable everywhere.

Stages of the funnel.  Stage Three - Big Brother Systems
The next stage of the funnel is the use of systems that combine Same Sonic Science with as much Social Validation data that can be collected.  Huge pools of song consumption/activity data are accumulating across the Internet and elsewhere.  It’s now possible to monitor the world for songs that are bubbling under the radar in every niche.  It’s also possible to identify emerging trends and new niche genres.  Right now, there are a few gatekeepers that are preparing to act upon this data.  In the near future, every professional in the music industry will use this data to some extent.  Within five years, presentations of this data, through stunning user interfaces, will be available to everyone.     
 
Stages of the funnel.  Stage Four - Trusted Curators
Stages one, two, and three of the funnel, will eliminate 80% to 90% of the songs entering the funnel each year.  However, the funnel keeps getting bigger.  New songs mingle with old songs, and there are still too many songs for the average consumer to listen to.  Trusted Curators (refernce) are those that know how to extract the gems from the bottom of the funnel, and consumers will still rely upon these people to make recommendations.  Trusted Curators are record labels (still), programming directors, music bloggers, music supervisors, talent buyers, booking agents, others, and my favorite: artists that brand together to build a brand on the Internet.

Funnel Strategies For Artists  - 2010 and onward.
There will be no fooling the funnel.  There are too many sites and systems, and everything can be crosschecked and correlated.  Don’t waste your time buying plays or trying to find ways to game the funnel.  Eventually, you will be exposed as a fraud.

Hedge your bets and create a mutual fund for songs.  If you have some business sense and if you are skilled at promotion, become a Trusted Curator.  Pull numerous artists into a unified brand where everyone involved shares in some of the upside.

If I were an aspiring artist today, I wouldn’t spend much effort on promotion (single artist no, multi-artist brand yes).  I would wait for the funnel to evolve.  Your songs are going to settle into their natural place in the funnel regardless of how much or little noise you make about yourself.

Stop editing your own work.  Find a great producer / engineer to help you make the best songs possible.  Make lots of songs, and seek every bit of rip-it-apart, put-it-back-together feedback as possible.

Absolutely wipe the following thought from your brain: “If I could get a record deal and get my songs into heavy rotation on FM radio, everyone would love me.”  That’s never going to happen.  Record labels will be the biggest users of the funnel; especially Stage Three (Big Brother Analysis).  It’s all going to be about song quality (finally).  You can’t promote your way to a “deal”.  Make songs, obtain super critical feedback, fix and repair songs, repeat process; this is your best option.

Prior to becoming reasonably popular, putting numerous, iteratively improved and produced songs into the Celestial Funnel will generate more career progress than going on tour.  In my opinion, you are better off working the best day job you can find, and then investing in professional help to make your songs better (versus touring as an unknown).  

How do I put songs into the funnel?
Make sure you have a Free Song Strategy and a Digital Manager (a human) that seeks the most efficient way to manage your presence on anything and everything on the Internet.  Unfortunately, there’s no easy way to create profiles and to continually load songs into everything on the Internet, but you have to do it for now.

• TuneCore can help you move your songs around, but TuneCore’s reach is limited.
• ArtistData can help you move your data around, but not your songs.
• ReverbNation and TuneCore can help you monitor progress.
• All three of the propositions above need to be combined.

At what rate do songs travel through the funnel?
It’s early days for the funnel.  2008 is barely year one of the Celestial Funnel.  It will take several years for everyone to fully adopt most of this technology.  By 2011, fresh songs will take a year (one million new songs a year) to succeed or fail.  I have nothing to base this upon; it's just my estimate.

A word of caution…
I am always ahead of my time.  If you are 2/3 into your plan for success, you may want to ignore me and continue.  If you are just starting out, hit print and read again…

What would it take for an independent artist that is not on the radio to generate $100,000 a year in net income from digital music revenue?  The answer is 5,000,000 P-SPINS.  

SPINS ON THE RADIO
A spin on FM, satellite or Internet radio occurs when a radio station plays a song. Every spin generates a number of impressions.  For example, if 50,000 listeners on average are tuned in to a radio station when an artist’s song is “spun”, the artist receives 50,000 impressions from that one spin.  On that same radio station 20 spins would yield 1,000,000 overlapping and/or unique impressions.  

CONVERTING LISTENERS TO FANS
People are listeners first; they become fans through repeated exposure, filtering and imprinting.  The conversion from listener to fan is a complex process.  100% of the people that are repeatedly exposed to a song do not become fans and buyers of a particular song. 

• The number of exposures during a given time period is called Frequency.  
• The rate that listeners convert to fans is called the Conversion Rate.
• Listeners * Frequency * Conversion Rate = Fans.
• 500,000 Listeners * 10 (spins within a time period) * 2% Conversion Rate = 100,000 Fans

SPINS OFF THE RADIO ARE P-SPINS
Getting on mass-market radio isn’t easy. Most artists have to rely on Personal Play Spins or P-SPINS for exposure.  A P-SPIN can occur anywhere there’s a PLAY button tethered to one of your songs.  A P-SPIN can occur on MySpace, FaceBook, ReverbNation, Last.FM, iLike, your website, or within any widget carrying your music. The easiest place for a P-SPIN to occur FREQUENTLY is on a listener’s laptop or iPod.  

P-SPINS ARE MORE VALUABLE THAN RADIO IMPRESSIONS
Presumably, a listener is already motivated to press the PLAY button that causes a P-SPIN to occur.  The listener has found or obtained your song, and/or some level of filtering and/or imprinting has already occurred.  In addition, the effort required to purchase your song is minimal, as the ability to convert from a listener to a fan/purchaser is just a click away. 

UN-TETHERED P-SPINS DRIVE FREQUENCY
Remember this equation: Listeners * Frequency * Conversion Rate = Fans.  It’s always nice to see your P-SPIN numbers going up on a site where you don’t have to give your music away.  However, to convert many listeners to fans you need the FREQUENCY that only comes from un-tethered P-SPINS.  Un-tethered P-SPINS are the spins that occur on laptops or iPods that can be disconnected from the Internet.  When it comes to racking up P-SPINS nothing beats being in “heavy rotation” (most frequently played) on devices that can be used anytime/anyplace.

DIGITAL MUSIC CONSUMERS BUY DIGITAL MUSIC
I have not seen survey or statistical data that demonstrates what percentage of FANS actually purchase digital music instead of test-driving it.  There’s lots of information that shows that consumers have lots of stolen (for the purpose of trying) music, but what about those consumers that become fans?  At what rate do FANS convert to purchasers of music?  For the analysis I did here, I used 50% as the percentage of FANS that will eventually buy your music.  

AVERAGE FAN SPENDING PER ARTIST PER YEAR ON DIGITAL MUSIC
For this analysis I am carrying $3.00 per artist, per year.  Given that most digital music consumers are spending less than $250 per year on all artists, I believe that it’s safe to assume that $3.00 per year is an appropriate average for all artists combined.

THE MATH
Click here to download the spreadsheet.  Try your own assumptions.

THINGS YOU HAVE CONTROL OVER
Listeners * Frequency * Conversion Rate = Fans

• Listeners - one of the simplest strategies you can pursue to increase listeners is to be everywhere and anywhere on the Internet.  
• Frequency - set your songs free.  You need frequency/spins to convert listeners into fans.  The best way to increase frequency is to be in as many un-tethered devices (MP3 players for example) as possible.
• Conversion Rate - the percentage rate in which listeners convert to fans - you can improve this rate by improving your songs.  I have always maintained that a great producer is invaluable to improving the quality of your music.
• % Paid to a digital aggregator - try to push your fans to the store that charges you a flat annual fee instead of stores that extract percentages from your sales (coming soon).

THE SUBSTITUTION PROBLEM
I have been talking about how substitution is a far greater challenge to the music industry than replication.  As the use of digital music grows you will have less and less control over reaching Listeners and/or boosting Frequency (from the equation above).  The number of Listener will grow, but so will the number of songs attached to the shuffle, reverse and forward buttons.  Since we are talking about multiplication, you could argue that the equation will balance out.  However, the number of places digital music consumers hang out already challenges your ability to REACH listeners; this challenge is also part of the solution (hint).

DISCLAIMER
I am not an expert on radio promotion (not even close).  The purpose of my writing is to test my assumptions.  If you have any contradictory facts, figures or thoughts - blast away.  I intentionally left off all other revenue sources.  However, you should expect the potential for other revenue sources to be substantial when you have reached 5,000,000 P-SPINS.  Create your own projections by counting your P-SPINS to date and comparing that number to the digital music revenue you generated over the same time period.

 

 

If you have not seen the movie Once, rent it and watch a great example of what I have been calling an elaborate plan.

Once was written and directed by the John Carney, the bass player for the Frames.  The movie featured unknown actors including Glen Hansard, the lead singer of the Frames.

The Once team wrote a plan, raised $160,000 and made a great independent film that featured their music.

The film Once has won numerous awards.  The song "Falling Slowly" won the 2008 Academy Award for Best Original Song, and the Once soundtrack was twice nominated for Grammy Awards.

Once has grossed over $17,000,000 (as of March 08) at the box office alone.

If you want to make it on your own, you have to be as smart as John Carney.  Great execution John.  Brilliant!  Read the NY Times movie review.

 

 
One Hundred Million People a Month and Growing
Three years ago nobody cared about MySpace or Facebook.  Now here we are in 2008, and one hundred million people around the globe are using social networking technology on a monthly basis.  What’s the motivation?  Alan Moore says in his recent article titled INFLUENTIALS ARE TOAST that “Human beings have an innate need to connect, communicate and collaborate.  Digitalization has revealed the true nature of humans, and that truth changes everything.”

Digitalization Has Revealed A Truth That Changes Everything
“Human beings have an innate need to connect, communicate and collaborate.  Digitalization has revealed the true nature of humans, and that truth changes everything.”  This is powerful and profound; you can’t unwind a truth; MySpace and Facebook have birthed a truth.  Obvious it is not.  Most things in life are assumptions; proof of truth is hard to come by.  The truth is, social networking technology will forever enable people to connect, communicate and collaborate - like they innately desired to, but could not easily do - in such a manner - until 2005.

Connect, Communicate and Collaborate - So What?
Moore also says “culture is created by the interaction between human beings”.  So, people are creating micro cultures or communities at a pace and via methods that were unheard of three years ago.  Good or bad - and irreversible, these communities are changing the game when it comes to music marketing and promotion; it’s communities that are dominating brands.  It’s not intense advertising, it's not celebrity endorsements, it’s not street-team marketing, it is the formation of communities that will dominate the creation, the maintenance and even the destruction of brands.

Brands Dominate The Charts
Not only do brands dominate the charts, brands dominate ticket sales.  If you are not creating music, you are probably thinking about how to create a brand.  Prior to 2005, you could build a music brand with a pile of money and a proven formula; record labels were pretty good at it; now, communities have all of the power.  Not only can members of the community try music before they buy it, a community or a micro-culture can rapidly form to breath life into a brand, or they can suck the wind out of it before it takes a second breath.

New Truth = Unlearn Old Methods
I read a printout of INFLUENTIALS ARE TOAST when I was stuck on a runway for two hours last week.  On a normal day I could have read right through this article without giving it much consideration; after all, the implications of social networking have been analyzed more than the laws of gravity.  However, it was the notion of “truth” that struck me as significant.  You can do some things in life based upon assumptions, however when you’re stoned with the truth, you have to make real adjustments.  Perhaps I have to unlearn everything I learned about marketing prior to 2005-2006?  Seriously!

Old Marketing Out - New Marketing In
Old marketing doesn’t work.  New marketing has barely been invented.  You may want to start by reading David Jenning’s book titled Net, Blogs and Rock “n” Roll.  You could also consider the next couple of paragraphs.  Moore goes on to say “communities form around values, interests and desires, not demographics.”  You should ask yourself (self) - how do you leverage the knowledge that communities are formed around values, interests and desires - and not demographics?

Hang a VID Sign
People that share your Values, Interests and Desires (VID) want - and may even have an innate need - to find and connect to you.  Making it easy for your “VID Tribe” to find you has to be an important part of your elaborate plan.

Your songs say a lot about your values, your interests and your desires.  You should post your lyrics, but unknown lyrics don’t translate well to the way people search for information; so, lyrics won’t help much in making that first connection to your tribe.  They will however, be invaluable after you’re found.  

You will have to go beyond lyrics and really think about how you want to STRONGLY communicate your values, your interests and your desires.  You can blog about these things, and you can post images and video that paints a picture of the community or micro-culture you belong in, or that YOU innately want to connect to.  Everything you post becomes searchable, and the more you say - the bigger the sign becomes!  

The Ends of the Battery
When you are hanging your VID Sign, remember: power comes out of the ends of the battery.  My advice would be to know who you are and strongly commit to it; don’t play the middle.  People may join lots of communities, but they will have millions of communities to choose from.  I am not talking about extremism as much as avoiding the trap of trying to appeal to the widest possible audience.  A strong commitment to your values, interests and desires powers the brightest sign.  You’ve heard of a brain dump, try a heart dump…

Be True
You can’t make the shit up.  Everything you say goes under a microscope if you’re successful.  If you manufacture the gravity you’re using to attract a community you will eventually be exposed as a fraud.  Every sentence you type is archived and searchable.  If you are taking a strong position on something, you may want to reserve your right to change your mind; you may also want to ask for feedback to shape an opinion that you are attempting to form.     

Inviting or Joining
Your hanging out your VID Sign that communicates your values, your interests and your desires - are you inviting members to your micro-culture or are you joining a community that already exists?  The answer is both.  If you enjoy things technical read this page about mesh networks.  Basically, you have to join and invite at the same time.  Nobody owns the community and the community goes on with or without you.  The marketing of artists use to involve making the artist the center of the universe, now the artist has to become a valued and accepted contributor to the community.     

How Do You Invite?
You have to become a blogger.  There’s no escaping the fact that you have to hang your sign and declare your positions if you want to be a contributing member of a community.  Declaring your positions means describing with word, image, song and video - your values, interests and desires.  Moreover, I believe this is an activity you can’t be skimpy about.  The “truth” has been revealed, and to ignore it by relying on pre-2006 methods to market and promote your music is a recipe for death by obscurity.   

How Do You Join?
Scout the earth for those that share your values, interests and desires and make real friends.  This goes beyond talking about your music, and it goes way beyond the fake-friending people do on MySpace.  Find real friends, start conversations, declare your allegiance to positions and then introduce people to your music and the interesting and COMMON things you blog about.    

Tools & Technology
Creating a blog under your own URL and using it in conjunction MySpace and/or Facebook is one option.  Facebook just launched Facebook Music.  In my mind, the right tool has not hit the market yet.  If you are going to go through the effort of “hanging a VID Sign”, “inviting” and “joining” as described above, you should strongly consider promoting your own URL; while using sites like MySpace, Facebook, iLike and Last.FM to drive traffic to your own branded blog.  If you are into messaging, you may also want to give Twitter a try.  

Communities Dominate Brands
For this post I stood on the shoulders of Alan Moore.  Alan’s blog is also called Communities Dominate Brands.  Alan’s article “Influentials Are Toast” was the inspiration for this post.

There has been a lot of discussion on this blog and on the Internet about the death of the album.  Spending mind time on the decision to make albums or to sequentially release singles is missing the point.

Revenue from the sale of music is slowing considerably for everyone.  Reoccurring revenue, which is the ongoing stream of revenue you make outside of touring, is going to come from consumers that tune into and fall in love with your brand on the Internet.



To persuade fans to tune in, to fall in love with, and to spend money on your brand, you need an elaborate plan that goes way beyond the album or singles decision.  You will have go far beyond creating a MySpace page that features five of your songs and ten pictures of your band.  You will have to rethink what it means to be entertaining on the Internet.  

The name of your brand, the URL you use, the first word you type, the sequence in which you release your songs, your lyrics, the images you feature, the videos you release, the messages you type, and everything you put into your online presence should be part of an elaborate plan to seduce fans.
 
The concept of seduction does not have to be sexual.  I use the concept of seduction to convey complexity and long term planning.  Map out a two year or three year plan that elaborately pulls people into your world of images, poetry, lyrics, stories, music, mystery, hints, clues, energy, characters, plot, storyline, drama, intrigue and excitement.

A regular old website or MySpace page is not the ideal vehicle for building a brand upon.  Your name and your image may not be the ideal vehicle to build a brand upon.  Start by thinking like the creator of a television series.  What do you call it?  What is it about?  How many “seasons” will it take to tell the story?  Make the presentation simple and compelling, but make your plan to seduce - elaborate, intriguing and complex.  

Billboard ran a story a few weeks back titled “Behind The Madonna Deal”.  In the article, the new CEO of Artist Nation, Michael Cohl, talks about doing deals with older acts.  Here are some quotes from Michael:  On the Rolling Stones: “In 1989 I did a deal with the Rolling Stones – two of them were 46, one of them was 49, and one of them was 52; that was almost twenty years ago!”  On Frank Sinatra: “We promoted Frank Sinatra when he was 82 and sold out.”  On the issue of age:  “Talk about age is ridiculous.  It’s a boogeyman that younger people like to throw at older people.” 

Michael’s right, talk about age is ridiculous.
Here are two reasons why age doesn’t matter:

Digital Music Crosses Generations
Five years ago, acquiring music was time consuming.  Record labels targeted the segment of the population that had time to give.  Going to the record store was something that the kids did.  The Internet and digital music is changing the music acquisition landscape.  People of all ages are building music collections again.  As an artist you no longer have to be concerned about connecting with kids to sell music or to build popularity.  If your music appeals to older segments – then great.  In 2008, there’s an audience for every sound and song.

Huge Population Segments
On the attached chart I clumped the US population into three broad clumps (15 to 34) (35 to 54) (55 to 74).  You can see that the smallest segment is 50,531,000 people; that’s a huge market regardless of age.  You should also take note that the largest segment is the 87,009,000 people that are in the thirty-five to fifty-four year old segment that exists today.  This segment is connected to the Internet and they are more likely to purchase music than the younger segment that steals it.

Age Will Not Matter
Don’t worry about your age.  The old music industry wanted youth.  The new music industry just needs to help you find your niche.  Anyone overly focused on age doesn’t understand the shifts that are occurring in music acquisition behavior and within our population.  The next time someone tells you that you are too old - check to see if he’s carrying a layoff notice from a record label.