If you have previously read what I write here and all over the Internet, you will note that I believe:

• At this point in time - all P2P sharing is a good thing, not a bad thing.
• The industry can’t turn back time and un-invent the iPod.
• P2P is not killing the paid download business – other things will.
• Paid downloads will cease as a business model – for other reasons.
• Artists should make their MP3s (at least demo versions) freely available for sharing and download.
• Lack of product innovation is the biggest problem the music industry suffers from.
• Innovation will change the music industry.  (Here’s our vision…)
• Over reliance on digital audio workstations generates negative consequences…
• (I am looking for more feedback on the last bullet above.)

Ideas pop into my head from time to time that cause me to rethink my assumptions and thus my overall direction.  This brings me to my post from yesterday on Illegal File Sharing…

I am BETTING that PAID DOWNLOADS WILL END AS A BUSINESS.  However, if some how the MP3 business can be saved - I want to know.  Here are two scenarios I equally consider:

Scenario One – Smart Marketing Wins 
Smart marketing can marginalize illegal P2P and thus help save the download business.  Here’s my theory:

I am guessing that:

• 80%++ of the 10,000,000 people that share over 1,000,000,000 tracks each month DON’T have enough technical background to TRULY know FOR SHIT SURE that the MP3 they just downloaded is encoded at a rate that will sound DECENT in their car?
• Most people don’t have a clue about encoding or why their MP3s don’t sound all that good when cranked up in the car, or on the home stereo.  
• Most people don’t know the difference between something that sounds “OK” and something that sounds great.
  

I know that when millions of file sharers (people) get older and busier they will have less and less TIME to invest in acquiring music, and that millions will buy nice cars that have fancy stereos, and that millions will upgrade their room-based and home-based sound systems.

I am theorizing that:

• A concerted effort (if it could happen) by the industry could educate people about sound quality.  That the difference between crap and quality could be easily demonstrated; thus leaving doubt in consumer’s minds about the quality of their illegal music collection.
• A concerted effort by the industry would convince millions that CERTIFIED = QUALITY, and that UNCERTIFIED = DOUBT (“You never know for sure when you use P2P…”).
• Millions of people would opt for CERTIFIED over UNCERTIFIED, and that they would choose to have 1,000 15MB files over 3,000 5MB files (of varying quality).
  

SCENARIO ONE CONCLUSION: Smart marketing and packaging will not save the paid download business, but this program may relegate file-sharing networks to second-rate music discovery services that transport UNCERTAINTY – as it is perception and the need for convenience - that trumps reality.


Scenario Two – Certified Quality Will Never Matter
The quotes below by Manna and Reliz sums up scenario Two better than I could say it.

“P2P users and the like couldn't care less - believe me. You say it will save me time - compared to what? Downloading an album via RS in less than 1 minute? I've been around for a while, and the occasionally bad rip on the file sharing networks has never been an issue. Finding a new and perfect rip usually only takes a few minutes or less. Should 320 rips ever be used and accepted as the only true good quality ripping (despite the fact that very few will ever notice the difference from a 192 rip, and it will take up a lot more space on your hard drive) I would think that all illegal rips would be (would end up) in 320 as well.”

“I don't think the majority of people (with the exception of audiophiles and the artists who produced the tracks themselves) really care that much about song quality. Most likely they've got the bass way to loud in their car stereo or they're using their own EQ settings, or they're listening with $5 headphones anyway, so using quality of the encoding as a way of marketing certified music I do not think is going to work. And like manna said, the better the encoding or quality, the larger the file size, which for a lot of people I think would be a more pertinent factor.”

Can Illegal P2P be Marginalized by Marketing?
I would love to get more comments on this and the future of the paid download business.

Thanks for your comments.